Presidential elections in Chad: Confusion

‘Les tirs de joie tuent les gens’ (Facebook Messenger)

10 April: day of the votes
No Facebook, no Whatsapp, no sms messages: this all leads to a weird silence. ‘What are they afraid of?’ asked Croquemort, Chadian protest slam artist, on Facebook. He is in Europe so he is able to post. The answer of other diaspora Chadians is that it is the fear for the people. We are wondering: what is happening in Chad today? Are we witnessing a real change in the political landscape? Is it possible that the sitting dictator/President will be sent away by the ballot box? Will he allow such a transition?

In this blog ‘report’ I summarize my experiences of the Presidential elections in Chad where, eventhough the official outcome has still to be finalised, it is clear that the current President Déby will remain in power, after having already served during a  period of 26 years. This is bad news for the large group of people who voted against him. The first results circulating on Facebook and in bars and the outcomes as announced by the government on 21April are so divergent that the future of Chadian politics is very insecure.  Read more about the elections in the blog of Deuh’b Emmanuel

 

Kebzabo’s Facebook picture: in front of the masses…

The campaign
The campaign started on 20 March (see previous blog) and the closer the day of the elections the more posts on Facebook. The day before the elections  numerous were the postings on Facebook supporting Saleh Kebzabo, the main opposition candidate to the President. At the ‘Place de la Nation’ Kebzabo assembled more people than the outgoing President Déby did a few days earlier. In Moundou, Kebzabo created a huge crowd in the streets. The pictures posted on Facebook also showed a huge amount of people supporting Kebzabo in Fianga. No doubt that this is real. And it seems indeed that Déby, who certainly wants to be in power for the coming years, did not expect such an overwhelming support for his rival Kebzabo (and by the way for a third candidate, Médard, the mayor of Moundou, economic capital of the south). It is expected that Déby will do everything to keep his power. But from what we have been observing, his power base is crumbling. Are people really fed up with him?

Diaspora
Skepticism about the influence of the diaspora and social media in the political process seems to have definitively settled with the events in Chad. It can simply not be denied how social media have been influencing the process and will influence the process in its ability to follow the elections and report about it. Citizen journalism at its best!

9 April was the day the military would vote. They voted and were expected to support the sitting President. One bureau in the North, where military voted, became the issue on Facebook. The voting was not done in a private environment, but everybody could follow who the soldiers would vote for. Eight soldiers who very openly refused to vote for Déby but supported Kebzabo, were arrested and put in prison. One of them was able to call his family and they (via contacts in the Netherlands) were able to connect to the most active diaspora Facebook-writer in Paris (‘fils de Maina’) who posted the story on Facebook. Nothing is hidden; the story is scandalous.

Voting: informal results
On 10 April more information about the voting was released by members of the diaspora, who obtain this information through calling with their informants in Chad; Despite the biometric cards, stories about fraud and many strange things that are happening during the elections circulate. Apparently the voices of the population can no longer be silenced. (blog Marielle Debos)

In one of his posts, fils de Maina analyses the elections and comes to a stunning conclusion: It could indeed happen that the votes are turned in such a way that Déby will win, but this time the population will not accept.

And then there were the weird moves of the French and the European Union – who urged the population to accept the results – and their demand to Kebzabo to accept the offer of the Déby to become Prime Minister: were they preparing the victory of Déby? The international community is following the elections eagerly as they do not wish Deby defeat, as that would probably mean an end to the Chadian interventions in the war on terror.

A friend confided in me during a Facebook Messenger exchange: ‘We are afraid of what will come’.

Sitting in my house in the Netherlands, Croquemort and I were convinced that there should be a second round, after all, Déby could not claim the first round, given the results that were published on Facebook.

21 April: announcements of (preliminary) results
Thursday night (21 April) MPS supporters’ rifles burst into N’Djamena’s air. After the winning results for their President, they were full of joy. Their bullets injured a lot of people and could be interpreted as a warning not to demonstrate. ‘Les tirs de joie tuent les gens’.The fraud election results, showing 61.5 % for President Déby and hence a prolongation of his term, will most probably lead to unrest in Chad. The future is very uncertain.

Of course everybody was expecting fraud, but the openness of it is stunning! After three empty announcements that the election results would be published, finally, on Thursday 21 April, Chadian television. broadcasted the press conference. The results were read first by the president of the CENI, (Commission Electorale Nationale Indépendante) and then by others. They went from the northern to the southern provinces. I was (in the Netherlands) with Croquemort, who was increasingly getting angry and was stupefied
by the announced results. Saleh Kebzabo, who was the big winner in the pre-results which circulated on the internet, happened to be the big loser. In a few southern provinces he had around 50 %, but the huge victory was not given to him. Instead, Idriss Déby got most of the votes, losing only in a few provinces. In N’Djamena he had 50%, in the northern provinces over 80%, and  a mere 24% in the south. We knew this would happen, but had hoped for results that would have allowed for a second round between Kebzabo and Déby, but alas… The regime of Déby has taken the situation in its hands.
N’ Djamena and other cities are militarized, surveillance is everywhere.

The moment of waiting had come for the opposition to take the future in their hands. Will they indeed develop a shadow government? Or will they all turn to the party of Déby, like four of them already did? Everything can be bought. These four simply have chosen to become part of the system and have a good job, incorporated in the government.

RFI (Radio France International) reported neutrally. The French have asked Kebzabo to accept a post as Prime Minister. He has not accepted. Further silence from the side of the French. And the EU? The Americans?

Facebook, Whatsapp and SMS were all still blocked. No exchanges possible since 10 April, the day of the elections, except for those who know how to circumvent, how to hack.

29 April: Protest?
Facebook and all other connections are back. On 29 April the opposition announced the real results: Saleh Kebzabo and Laoukein Kourayo Mbaiherem Médard (the mayor of Moundou) are on top (resp. 31 and 24%), Déby is the fourth with 10 % of the votes. How these figures were composed is not clear, but they come closer to the informal outcome as was reported just after the elections.

Information is politics!

read as well the blog of Makaila and see this post of Maina with his as ever strong statements:

 

Emerging civil society and the elections in Chad

Dominance of MPS banners in the streets of N’Djamena. (Photo: Bokal).

‘No I was not an activist, but yes I have become one, a little bit. It has to stop, this crazy country, it is a crazy country; we have oil, manpower, gold, gas, but nothing is going; life is expensive, and nothing goes; that is how it is here…’

‘I study in Douala, private law; yes the universities are good in Cameroon. Here in Chad nothing goes… so it is time things change, and I want to do something.’

‘Yes I write.. I am on Facebook… we need to do something.’ (27 March 2016)

I am sitting at the back of the moto-cycle of a friend, driving around N’Djamena to search for an ATM that still has some money. The SGTB and UBA, the bigger banks, have no money. Finally we find the Ecobank cash machine, where I can get the money I need to pay my bills. The friend tells me about his new vocation: being active in civil society. We drive along the roads where the symbols of the leading party of President Déby, the MPS (Mouvement Patriotique du Salut), are shouting at us: the colors blue and yellow with the symbol of the hoe and the Kalashnikov crossed, as if both are weapons of survival in Chad. The campaign started on 20 March, and nobody can by now ignore the MPS, possibly the winning party at the Presidential elections that are due 10 April.

Banner of presidential candidate Kebzabo. (Photo: Bokal).

Gradually in the days after the 20^th, another party – with orange colors – became visible in some streets: the UNDR (Union Nationale pour la Démocratie et le Renouveau) of Saleh Kebzabo, who was also present during the first elections in Chad just after the 1990s when Idriss Déby took power from Hissène Habré. A power he never left. But will he do so this time? Will civil society be able to force him out of his position? Speculations are part of daily conversations, but nobody knows.

The streets speak
The discourse of my friend resonates wildly among part of the moto-taxi youth in N’Djamena, who tell me they will vote, but not for Déby. It has been enough!

And it is not only these young men who adhere to this message. Also Youssouf, the Fulani driver who helped me out when I needed help, will vote for Kebzabo, he is certain:  ‘No way, Déby nafataa (he is of no use), he did not work, and nothing has changed over the past years. So what should we do? I vote for Kebzabo’.

Photo: Sjoerd Sijsma.

 

Election hype
I was in Chad from 6 March to 4 April, and saw the election hype emerging. According to the short interviews I did with the ‘clando’s’ and friends, the race will most likely  be between current President Idriss Déby, Saleh Kebzabo (who is presenting for the third time) and Laoukein Kourayo Médard, who is the mayor of Moundou, the economic capital of Chad and presenting for the first time. Both latter candidates are pro ‘alternance démocratique’. These are three candidates of a total of fourteen.

It is the first time that the elections will use a biometric voter system. It is not clear if the cards will be ready in time and if this new technology will really stop fraud. Rumours about these cards are rampant (www.rfi.fr/afrique/20160404-tchad-trafic-cartes-electeur-opposition-inquiete). Would Déby need to fraud the elections to win? Read the different interpretations on the RFI site.

Emerging civil society
Youssouf and my moto friend are part of the emerging civil society in Chad. Earlier, I wrote a blog on the events in March 2015. Many people now refer to these protests against the wearing of helmets as the beginning of change in Chad. People then became aware that they can protest and need to do so for change and probably a better life, without poverty and without ugly inequalities, with electricity 24/24 and water that flows from the taps when you need it.

The day of whistling: early in the morning, people blew on their whistles to protest. (Photo: Deub’h Emmanuel).

Since a few months a new civil society language is appearing. The actions are unique. The day of whistling: when people early in the morning blew on their whistles to protest and show solidarity for l’alternance. There was the day of ‘ville morte’ when many people followed the call not to go to their work and leave their shops closed. There are also plans for a general strike in the administration and a strike by university students. The various appearing civil society organisations are increasingly working together in their actions. Despite the prohibition to demonstrate until after the elections, there have been many attempts to demonstrate: the recent arrest of four leaders has led to demonstrations that were brutally suppressed (see this blog by Zyzou). These actions show solidarity among the Chadians. And not only in N’Djamena, the capital, but also in Abéché in the East, in Moundou and Sahr in the South. It seems that the first protests in March 2015 have been the announcement of a new socio-political dynamic in Chad (see earlier blog).

Are these all signs of change, of a civil society that will be able to say ‘stop’ to injustice and to a President who has been there for too long? Will my friend and Youssouf find their right? Or is it still too early and does Chad not yet have the civil society that is needed for change?